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Should we wait for TD-LTE to spread wireless broadband?


http://www.3gmodem.com.hk/Huawei/E585.htmlIs long term evolution time division duplex (TD-LTE) the best technology available for rollout of wireless broadband services in India?The question assumes significance in the context of the low penetration of wireless broadband in the country and the urgent need to improve this to a level in sync with the huge potential, and the preference shown by some operators for this new, but untested, technology.TD-LTE lies on the evolution path of time division synchronous code division multiple access (TD-SCDMA), a technology driven by the Chinese government, and is therefore widely known as a standard originated from China. Most patents related to TD-LTE are owned by Chinese vendors and top positions in standard bodies related to TD-LTE are dominated by them, which means standardisation can be delayed or specifications can be modified in their favour.If TD-LTE keeps growing this way, the whole telecommunication industry could be jeopardised and might end up relying on Chinese vendors.It is questionable if the TD-LTE ecosystem formed by Chinese vendors is robust E585 and sustainable enough to continue its technology development and a wide adoption of the technology.So far, only a few operators including China Mobile have expressed their will to adopt TD-LTE technology. Considering the time to develop TD-LTE products, the earliest availability of comercial products in the market will be around 2012.Although China Mobile is the largest mobile operator by subscriber base, it is still doubtful how many subscribers they can have by 2012 when wireless broadband market enters into a mature stage.This situation has put Indian operators, who have finally acquired broadband wireless access (BWA) spectrum, in a very worried and anxious state. A total of $8.2 billion was paid by the six winners during the BWA auction. According to recent news, they have to pay interest costs of about $36 million every month. Winners of BWA auction in India are eager to recover this huge amount of investment by launching their services as early as possible.But it isn’t just the industry that’s suffering on account of the delay, but the nation at large. And how?Well, the government plans to raise the broadband subscriber base in the country to 100 million by 2014 from just 7 million (penetration 0.6%) now. This is expected to boost the economy by invigorating the telecommunication industry and creating jobs. As E585 per a recent World Bank estimate, a 10% growth in broadband penetrations leads to a 1.3% increase in the gross domestic product of a nation.TD-LTE, currently in an initial stage of development, does not seem mature enough to satiate the needs of the telecom operators or the government. Even in China, though some tests are underway, no commercial base station or terminal is available at this point.So, should India seize a chance to leapfrog its economy by expanding broadband coverage with a mature wireless technology available today? Or, should it continue to remain waiting for tomorrow for a new and untested technology and thus lose the opportunity? I would go with the first choice.The writer is a professor at the department of electrical engineering, Stanford University, and the pioneer of a breakthrough wireless technology known as multiple input, multiple output (MIMO), used in latest WiFi and WIMAX systems. Views are personal. Source:3gmodem