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A presto Naz

La BCE è in attacco questa mattina. Vogliono assicurarsi che il dollaro non si chiuda al di sotto dei 200 DMA per la settimana.

Chiaramente le banche non hanno imparato nulla a maggio. Stanno ancora attaccando l'oro. Questa mattina potrebbe essere il più grande attacco di sempre. Quasi 20.000 contratti.

gary says: November 1, 2019 at 6:17 am I don’t think the banks will be able to stop the rally. Most likely they will just create another short squeeze and lose more billions.

Nov. 2 weekend report Posted on November 2, 2019 by gary Currencies: It looks like we’re finally going to see an ICL run to completion on the dollar. The rescue attempt at the 200 DMA has failed and now the dollar has made another lower low. Cycles have become almost useless in the currencies but I’m assuming the bounce counts as a rally out of a DCL and now we have a daily cycle that topped on day 8 and should have 20-40 trading days left before bottoming. It’s been my opinion that the triple bottom in the euro was probably a multi year cycle low. If that is correct then the current intermediate cycle should right translate and it should make a higher intermediate high. If this plays out then the dollar cycle will have to stretch as the euro cycle takes over as the bullish cycle. A right translated intermediate euro cycle should rally for a minimum of two daily cycles and probably partially into a third daily cycle. So unless the ECB can regain control I’m expecting this rally to continue into the spring. Probably into February or maybe early March.

Gold: As most of you know, I think we’re starting an inflationary cycle. The currency manipulation by the ECB and BOJ has forced the Fed to cut rates to fight back even though the economy is fine and doesn’t really need lower interest rates. This should lead to an inflationary phase in the years ahead. Let’s face it, when have politicians ever considered the long term ramifications of their actions? If the euro does indeed right translate causing the dollar ICL to stretch into the spring then you can see we have the driver now in place for the next intermediate cycle rally in gold. Back in May the banks got caught in a massive short squeeze when they failed to drive gold down into a bloodbath phase for the first time in years. That short squeeze drove an incredibly powerful rally and one that we made a lot of money off of. They are potentially trying to make the same mistake again. Over the last week I saw multiple large contract dumps, clearly the banks were again trying to crash the gold price. But just like in May the buyers keep showing up to defeat the shorts. So it looks to me like the same thing is happening. The banks are building larger and larger short positions trying to create a selling panic and in doing so they are again at risk of getting caught in another short squeeze. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that within the next two weeks we’re going to see a big surge higher in gold that will signal a squeeze has begun.

This has the potential to give us another big trending move right after the last one. That doesn’t happen very often in this business. Two really strong trending periods one right after the other. Often one has to wait many months or even a year or more before a market trends again after a big move. Notice the mess oil has been caught in ever since the last trending move ended back in the spring, or the almost 2 year sideways churn stocks have been stuck in after the trending move post elections. Metals completed the last confirmation this week as everything closed back above the 10 WMA. And the fact that the juniors are now leading is extremely bullish in my opinion.

My advice remains the same. I think gold completed a final ICL on Oct. 1st in the normal timing band at 22 weeks. The miners completed their ICL on Oct. 15, which isn’t unusual as these undercuts by miners have become common. And with the banks potentially about to trap themselves into another short squeeze now isn’t the time to get to jumpy with positions. If there is one thing I’ve learned about these trending markets, right when it looks like price is going to correct that’s usually when the next big surge occurs. Anyone that exits trying to dodge a pullback turns out to be the fuel to drive the market higher as they have to immediately chase when the market doesn’t give them the pullback they were expecting and instead starts to run away from them. Remember, during bull markets, and especially during strong trends the surprises come to the upside. It’s best not to try to anticipate pullbacks, they rarely occur when you think they will. It’s easy to get left behind in a trending market trying to dodge minor corrections. At this point gold probably has 20-30 days before the next DCL (based on the dollar probably just starting the declining phase of it’s daily cycle). I don’t think it would be wise to get left behind during a first daily cycle because you tried to dodge a 1 or 2 day correction in the middle of a cycle. What we want to see next week is RSI embed in the overbought condition. During the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle markets become overbought and stay overbought for long periods of time. This will be especially true in a trending phase.

Stocks: This same advice applies to stocks as well. They are clearly in the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle. RSI has embedded in the overbought condition. A falling dollar should be bullish for everything. So as long as stocks aren’t doing anything wrong I think we should assume we’re also starting a trend here as well. We’re not even half way through the daily cycle yet so I don’t think one needs to get jumpy in their stock positions and if we do get something that is recognizable as a half cycle low, use it to add to positions if you are so inclined. Gary