TRINKLED

Ancestral domain accord opens door to MILF declaration of independence: analysts

By ISAGANI DE CASTRO, JR.
/Newsbreak

The ancestral domain agreement between the Philippine government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front grants the armed separatist group the status of belligerency and opens the door for a self-declaration of independence, a former member of the governments negotiating panel said.

In a panel discussion last Monday organized by the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Cotabato-based Institute for Autonomy and Governance , Fr. Eliseo Mercado said that if the Arroyo government fails to implement the ancestral domain accord, it gives the MILF reason to declare independence.

Mercado, a former member of the government negotiating panel with the MILF, said the essence of the agreement on ancestral domain is not on the expansion of the Moro homeland but on its concept.

"This is the first time that Ive seen a document as such. You have all the elements of a state," he said. "That entitles the Bangsamoro to a self-declaration . Because its all there: youve been recognized, you have territory, you have self-determination, your ancestral domain is your birthright, its not part of the public domain."

Camilo Montesa, a lawyer and policy adviser of the think-tank IAG, agreed with Mercado, saying the MOA already contains the elements of the stateā€”government, people, territory, and "concedes international recognition."

Mercado praised the MILF negotiators for doing a good job pushing their agenda in the peace talks through the MOA on ancestral domain.

Mercado said the MOA is not just a "symbolic recognition" of the Moro people and state but "a real recognition."

He said the government may have agreed to grant this as "restitution of historical injustices" against the Moro people or it could be a "formula for peace and development."

Must show good faith

In order to avoid a situation that would push the MILF to declare independence, Mercado said the Arroyo government must implement the next steps of the accord, particularly the plebiscite that would expand the ARMM.

Under the MOA, the ARMM, composed of Sulu, Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Tawi-Tawi, Basilan, and Marawi City, will be expanded to include more than 700 villages in the provinces of Sultan Kudarat, Lanao del Norte, and North Cotabato, "subject to plebiscite."

If it fails to realize this, Mercado said this situation would give the MILF the chance to say the government "negotiated in bad faith," which will "open the MILF to go for a self-declaration [of independence]."

While President Arroyo may be able to convince Congress to support a plebiscite, Mercado said the more difficult part of the next phase is the need to change the constitution that would legitimize the Moro homeland through a shift to a federal system of government.

Mercado said it may not be feasible to have this shift under Arroyo, and the MILF may be willing to wait for the next president instead of going to war to achieve its goals.

Montesa had the same view as Mercado. He said: "If GRP fails to convince Congress to go on a campaign for cha-cha, then the MILF has two decisions: either they will let it pass, wait for the next President; or, they will break the talks and do a self-declaration ala Kosovo. Why? Because the elements of a state are already agreed upon in the MOA."

Can Arroyo deliver?

On whether President Arroyo can really deliver on what the government has promised the MILF, Mercado said "the president will deliver what is deliverable on the part of the president."

However, he said the president will not guarantee the deliverable that needs an act of Congress, such as a law calling for a plebiscite and the eventual shift to a federal form of government. "That depends on Congress. Congress should do the best effort."

Mercado said he believed that the Arroyo government was negotiating with the MILF in bad faith since it doesnt appear that it will be able to deliver on its promises.

He said the Arroyo government is now "unpopular" and incapable of fulfilling its commitments in the MOA on ancestral domain.

"The government has no social capital, it is unpopular. So that means, if they sign now, Im asking government, are they signing this MOA for a feather in their hat but they will not deliver? If there is no intention to deliver, then the government has negotiated in bad faith, and the MILF will be on high moral high ground. Then they will declare a Kosovo type-independence," Mercado said.

North Cotabato Vice-Governor Emmanuel PiƱol said that if the Arroyo government signs the MOA on ancestral domain, it would "open a new door" for the MILF and allow it to claim that they "have already established a state."

Give accord a chance

Lawyer Soliman Santos, a peace advocate and an expert on peace talks with Moro separatists, stressed the need for a national discussion that would help clarify and educate the people on the peace process, including on the ancestral domain agreement and issues such as belligerency.

He said the signing of the MOA on ancestral domain represents an opportunity to finally settle the armed conflict with Moro rebels in southern Philippines.

"Weve had this Bangsamoro problem with us for so long, and maybe this is the opportune moment," Santos said. "This could be some kind of a watershed for taking stock of things."

He suggested that the period between the signing of the MOA on ancestral domain and the final comprehensive peace agreement with the MILF is the "critical period" for a national discussion on the peace process.

"In questions of process, questions of substance--is this granting belligerency status to MILF, is this a prelude to a Kosovo-type solution, lets clear the air on this and try to focus energy and concerns in getting clear about what are problems, what are solutions, how we should go about this as much as possible without a return to arms, or a return to war, even on the MILF side," Santos said.