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Q&A: Can powers revive nuclear fuel deal with Iran?


VIENNA (Reuters) – Major powers are expected to test whether Iran might be ready to start addressing their concerns about its nuclear plans at a meeting in Istanbul this week, possibly by exploring ways to reduce deep mutual mistrust.Both sides have in recent months indicated willingness to resume talks about a plan to swap atom fuel which that more than a year ago and is seen by the West as a potential step to build confidence for broader negotiations on Iran's nuclear program.The issue may come up at the January 21-22 session between Iran and the six world powers in the Turkish city, even though expectations of any breakthrough in the long-running dispute over Tehran's atomic ambitions are low.They still differ on how such an exchange of Iranian low-enriched uranium (LEU) for higher-refined reactor fuel from abroad would take place. A tentative pact struck in October 2009 fell apart after Iran backed away from its terms.Western diplomats have suggested the idea could be revived if Iran also accepts wider discussions they hope will lead to it agreeing to curb nuclear work which they fear has military aims.They say any new accord must be updated to take into account Iran's growing LEU stockpile, material which can be used for bombs, and escalating enrichment activity since last February. Iran has rejected any toughening of the terms.Senior fellow Greg Thielmann of the Washington-based Arms Control Association said a fuel swap could increase confidence and help set the stage for a solution to the core dispute."A step to rejuvenate this concept would be a concrete symbol of progress," he said.The following looks at the plan's main elements and how it fits into the broader nuclear row between Iran and the powers:WHAT WAS THE IDEA BEHIND THE FUEL SWAP PLAN?Under the initial agreement brokered by the U.N. nuclear watchdog between Iran, the United States, France and Russia in 2009, Iran would send 1,200 kg of its LEU abroad -- roughly the amount needed for a bomb if refined to a high degree.The material would first be enriched to 20 percent fissile purity by Russia and then turned into fuel assemblies by France before its return to Iran for use in a medical research reactor, which is running out of fuel provided by Argentina in the 1990s.For the West, which suspects Iran is seeking covertly to develop nuclear weapons, the proposal offered a way to restore a degree of trust in relations with Tehran and help in the search for a diplomatic solution to the eight-year nuclear dispute.At the time, 1,200 kg of LEU represented about 75 percent of Iran's stockpile so it would also have ensured that it did not have enough left over for a weapon, at least temporarily.For Iran, it would have provided fuel for a reactor it says helps in treating hundreds of thousands of cancer patients.President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would also have been able to hail it as a foreign policy success, with Iran striking a deal with the powers without backing down over its enrichment work.The U.S. envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Glyn Davies, has described it as a "beautiful" agreement for Iran.SO WHY DID THE DEAL COLLAPSE?Analysts and diplomats believe it fell victim to Iran's internal power rivalries. Ahmadinejad's opponents, keen to deny him a diplomatic victory, said it would have forced Iran to part with the bulk of a strategic asset and a strong bargaining chip.Iranian politicians raised new conditions for the swap, saying it must take place on Iranian soil and simultaneously.This was unacceptable for the West as it would fail to remove potential bomb material from Iran, which says its nuclear program is a peaceful drive to generate electricity.Iran, Turkey and Brazil resurrected parts of the original plan last May in a bid to avert a tightening of sanctions on Tehran. Under this proposal, Iran would still send out 1.2 tons of LEU, this time to Turkey, in return for reactor fuel.But the United States, Russia and France -- known as the Vienna Group -- voiced deep concerns about Iran's new offer and the move failed to prevent the introduction of more sanctions.Their main worries included Iran's growing LEU stockpile -- which now amounts to more than 3 tons -- and its decision in February to escalate enrichment to 20 percent itself, an advancetoward weapon-grade material.Iran said it was forced to take this step to prepare the way for producing reactor fuel itself. But many analysts doubt its technical ability to convert the uranium into special fuel rods, heightening suspicions.COULD IT BE REVIVED?Ahmadinejad said in December Iran was prepared to discuss a possible fuel swap again. [ID:nLDE6B716F] But Iran later said the idea was losing its appeal because it would soon be able to make the fuel itself. [ID:nLDE70702U]Western diplomats stress that even if the fuel exchange arrangement is revived, Iran must also agree to address their core concerns about its nuclear activities.They fear that Iran may use any fuel swap talks as a way to distract attention from the West's main worry -- the uranium enrichment program -- and buy time to perfect the process.In October, the New York Times reported that intelligence analysts had concluded last year's deal was scuttled by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and that many officials therefore suspected any new effort would also fail.The Times said Washington and its European allies have prepared a new swap offer to Iran, which would require Iran to send about 2,000 kg of LEU out of the country.Tehran quickly dismissed the report, saying it only needed reactor fuel for the equivalent of 1,200 kg [ID:nLDE6A122Z] and this month, announced that it will make its own fuel for the research reactor later in 2011.If Iran "is confident that it can make reliable fuel elements, it will have no motivation to go through with the complex swap deal offered by France, Russia and the United States," nuclear expert Ivanka Barzashka of Federation of American Scientists (FAS) said.(Editing by Mark Heinrich)Shiawase No Telepathy.Pleasure.Download Naeher am Menschen. 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