Where is truth

ECONOMY: A French world champion economic forecasts


  He never set foot on the land of Uncle Sam, and yet it predicts the future of the U.S. economy better than anyone. At only 27 years, Christophe Barraud just been crowned best forecaster of the first world power by the magazine "Bloomberg Markets". Growth rates, GDP, unemployment, exports, real estate market ... estimates that young French economist were a tiny accuracy over the last 15 months, so that & rsquo , he beats a hundred other economists. "I'm very happy. Not only is this good for the company that employs me [Securities Market, ed], but in addition, it is a real personal satisfaction, a recognition of the work, "he explains , FRANCE 24 on cheerfully. His coronation should not, however, revolutionize its daily even if "request will be easier increase," he jokes. Between optimism and pessimism, the difficulty of being neutral To aim just as Christophe Barraud compelled stiff objectivity, avoiding on the one hand to succumb to the surrounding gloom, and secondly to ignore the current situation. "I try to talk to all the people around me to reach a neutral view. The economist the entrepreneur, through the neighborhood grocer ... All have a perception of the economy of their own, "he explains. For the rest, "there is no magic or special secret. I work seven days a week, "says Christophe Barraud. Its methodology is based on daily monitoring and much rigor: "I want to date with specialized information son and I follow the news closely, as a single strike can quickly impact the labor market, the launch of a new iPhone will shake digit retail, and a hurricane may disrupt the budget and the economy & rsquo and a country at any time, "he cites as an example. His reflexes, Christophe Barraud has naturally acquired during his studies. "I was lucky enough to come right in the crisis subprime ', a textbook example that led me to specialize in the area United States" , he remembers. But probably his greatest strength remains his passion for art, a passion that dates back to his childhood alongside a father keen sports paris ... 3% increase in the United States, France 0.8% by 2014, Christophe Barraud provides an American 3% growth against 1.7 this year, thanks "to lower unemployment, withdrawal of public deficit and easing the tax burden, "he says. In France, one can expect 0.8% growth "through our range by the aerospace sector and domestic consumption that goes well, unlike economy that above that it provides for the euro area can be imagined. "A forecast slightly (0.7%), particularly difficult to guess, as the young French "Many factors come into play for the euro area monetary policy of the Central Bank, the risk of crisis of confidence in countries like France or Italy and European elections in the spring next. " As expected personal, Christophe Barraud wants to expand its scope and could see himself soon steal the spotlight at Columbia of JPMorgan, voted best forecaster of the euro area. In the meantime, he plans, "why not" to write a book on France with the aim of "making a difference".