Watson blog

After State of the Union, Is Obamanomics Any Clearer?


WASHINGTON, DC – In his State of the Union Tuesday night, President Obama emphasized the mantra that will likelydefine his next two years in office: create jobs, reduce the deficit,and make America more competitive. To accomplish these goals, Obamaproposed a slew of solutions that include freezing domestic spending for fiveyears, simplifying the individual and corporate tax codes, reorganizingthe federal government, allowing the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy toexpire, tackling medical malpractice reform, investing in education,clean-energy, and high-speed rail and Internet, and signing more freetrade deals like the one the U.S. recently struck with South Korea.So,is Obama's strategy for reviving the U.S. economy clearer now than itbefore the President ascended to the podium on the House floor?What's Obama's Vision? Paul Krugman at The New York Times: "We're going to invest in thefuture--but we're also going to freeze domestic spending. So mixedsignals--and although there were no numbers, given the furtherassurance that the freeze won't affect anything important, this has tomean that the investment plans are small change."Show Us the Money!a Washington Post editorial. Obama didn't specify where he'll get the money for his proposals, the Post claims:Thereality, as Mr. Obama understands, is that the country is headed forfiscal catastrophe unless it does some politically unpopular things:unwind the Bush tax cuts, including for the middle class; reduceprojected Social Security benefits for future retirees, exempting thepoor and disabled; rein in the cost of health care; limit popularincome tax deductions. Mr. Obama knows this, but last night he didlittle to prepare Americans for any of it.Bad News: Markets Will Like Obama's Speech, James Saft at Reuters: "The markets will like that it is vague, that itis unobjectionable, that it makes a feint at diminishing the deficitwithout really cutting hard enough to hurt economic growth, and that itmakes the right kinds of noises about corporate taxation ... The fearcoming out of this State of the Union is that we will get neither thecuts nor the investment."A Deficit Deferred,Ross Douthat at The New York Times. Evaluating both Obama's speech and Republican Rep. Paul Ryan's ,Douthat concludes, "It's clear that both parties have decided that aperiod of divided government twelve months before a presidentialelection is the wrong time to make big moves on entitlements and thedeficit ... [and] that it's too risky to even begin building supportfor the unpopular cuts or tax increases ahead. The bet, on both sides,is that theres still time to work with, and that the other party willblink, or at least give ground, before the real crunch arrives."Obama, The Beleaguered CEO  In his speech, the President reminded The Atlantic's Megan McArdle of CEOs on earnings calls who know their business models arefailing but can't admit it, choosing instead to dwell on meaninglessgrowth initiatives or management reorganizations. "The structuralproblems with the government's finances are driving it rapidly towardsan unpleasant denouement," she . While Obama knows how to fixthese problems, "he can't make Congress do it before there's an actualcrisis. And saying all of this is all too likely to trigger thecrisis--a crisis he'd much rather would happen during someone else'spresidency. So he tells us what we want to hear: that we need to find away to fix social security without, y'know, changing it in any way. Andwill you look at those green jobs! I think we're going to have a bumpercrop!"Obama Tried to Contrast His Plan With Republican One, Politico's Glenn Thrush and Carrie Budoff Brown: "Obama wants to pick afight, or at least draw a stark contrast, between his jobs-centricphilosophy and the GOP's determination to cut government first and askquestions later. That's why he proposed an ambitious slate of newspending initiatives--he calls them 'investments'--setting up anextraordinary mini-campaign this spring in which Obama and the GOP willput their cases before the American people."In the mix at la Boum de Luxe (8 october 2004) . Songs from Draculas Dulcimer (Compiled by Andy Votel).Live on Kiss100 (20 october 2005).Entulho Sonoro 2.Wild to Night