Suhair blog

Egypt Q&A: Internal politics and key players

Egypt has long been one of America's strongest allies in the Middle East, but with popular protests on the verge of driving President Hosni Mubarak from office, Egypt's future relationship with the United States is in doubt. What is the current state of affairs in Egypt politically and who are the key players?

David Patel, a Cornell University professor of government who specializes in Middle East politics, Islamic institutions and political culture, talked about Egypt in a Q&A interview this week:

Q: A few days ago, you released a statement that the current regime was trying to foment chaos as an attempt to retain power. Can you talk about the seeming change in policy in light of Vice President Suleiman's more recent efforts to suppress the rioting through peaceful negotiation?

Patel: What we're seeing is a lot of movement within the party, pushing some people out. I think it's pretty clear that one faction within the [the ruling National Democratic Party] (NDP) is willing to sacrifice another faction within the NDP. A lot of the people associated with Gamal Mubarak [President Hosni Mubarak's son] have seen their assets frozen and their passports taken if they are not already out of the country. My sense is that a lot of the violence we saw a couple of day ago was orchestrated not from the cabinet, not from Omar Suleiman, the vice-president, or Mubarak, it was probably from mid-level NDP officials, other NDP officials, and people in the intelligence agencies.

There's a lot of competition within the party and they're pretty good at using thugs like this. There are networks of thugs that are used in elections and used to intimidate opponents. My sense isn't that the violence we saw a few days ago was from the top down, but from somebody else within the ruling party.

And you're right; the prime minister even apologized for it and said it was unacceptable. The military seems to be intervening more than they were before and that's why it stopped. The atmosphere in Tahrir is changed. It was a group of demonstrators under siege and now an almost festival-like atmosphere seems to be back with families and women in large numbers.

Q: Given the protesters' call for the immediate resignation of Mubarak and the current regime, who do you see as well-placed organizationally to take advantage of that and assume power in the short term?

Patel: The protesters are calling for a lot of things. Mubarak stepping down is the one that's easiest to chant. The real issue is: how is the transition going to be handled, and there are a couple different options? In Egypt the vice president is really the president-in-waiting. So picking Omar Suleiman is clearly designating him as the successor, and he is also someone who makes the Americans and the Israelis very comfortable. They know him very well from his time running the Egyptian Mukhabarat.

When you talk about a transition, what matters is really what's going to happen between now and September. Are they actually going to go ahead with presidential election in September? If so, how free will those elections be? Other people are talking about having parliamentary elections first, which could change things. Other people are talking about having some sort of triumvirate of one or two or three people leading some sort of transitional period which could be longer than September, delaying presidential elections and having some sort of constitutional review process first. Omar Suleiman would clearly play a prominent role, maybe even as a first among equals if that occurs.

Q: The constitution of Egypt clearly spells out the rules for succession, which would leave the NDP firmly in power if they were to follow those rules and Mubarak resigned. So it doesn't seem as though that's going to be an acceptable solution for most of the parties involved (other than the NDP).

Patel: It goes to the speaker of parliament. It also would limit the ability of a new president to call for new parliamentary elections. My understanding is that only an "elected president" can dissolve parliament and call for new elections. So, these are debates about the role of the constitution and how important that constitution and the words of that constitution should be for guiding this process.

It's pretty clear Mubarak isn't calling the shots anymore, right? Authority has moved away from him. Omar Suleiman is calling the shots. The people who were around and relied on access to Mubarak for their influence have found new patrons within the military and the party or are scrambling to find them. Mubarak is president in name only at this point.

He is hugely symbolically important, especially for the protesters, but even if he doesn't step down, his influence right now is minimal. He's not the one making statements anymore. It's Omar Suleiman who went on television the other day. It's Ahmed Shafik who's making statements. It's Tantawi, the defense minister, who's going down to Tahrir. So Mubarak's no longer the acting president. Even within the party, I don't think he's that important anymore.

Q: Of the other factions, there's the Muslim Brothers with whom the U.S. seems quite preoccupied. What is their actual influence in Egypt?

Patel: The Muslim Brothers are the largest and best organized of those opposition groups. We don't know how much support they have for several reasons. A lot of people supported the Muslim Brothers because they were seen as the only viable alternative to Mubarak. We know that a lot of the support for the Muslim Brothers comes from their ability to provide services that the Egyptian people need through clinics, schools and training centers. Well, if a new Egyptian government provides better for the Egyptian people and provides those services for the Egyptian people, maybe the influence of the Muslim Brothers in that avenue will decline.

There are a lot of people who like to say that they Egyptian Brothers have 15-20 percent of the Egyptian population behind them now. That's based not on how they did in the last election, but the previous election. There wasn't a free and fair election. There clearly wasn't a good expression of people's ultimate preferences, so you really can't estimate the support for the Muslim Brothers that way.

The Brothers have come out and said that they are not going to rule. They're not going to run somebody for president, and in fact, it looks like they are going to back a secular candidate for president. It seems like they've done everything they could to say that they will support a democratic process in terms of elections. They're working with secularists, and they'll be a part of the new order. They're not going to dominate it though. There's good reason, both empirically and theoretically, to think that they're not going to dominate Egypt in the short, medium, or long run.

The military is very well-trained, it's very large, it's very well-equipped. Order is not going to break down in Egypt. It's not like the Muslim Brothers are going to send their people out in the streets and seize power. The military isn't going to let that happen.

Q: One of the other groups that has become prominent is that of ElBaradei. Do you see him and his group, which, one might argue, has less in-country organization at this point, as playing a strong role?

Patel: He's been very prominent in the western media because he's a name and a face people recognize. He tried to position himself at the head of the protesters. You saw that there was a very dramatic scene of him going to Tahrir Square and giving a speech. My sense is that he doesn't have much of an organization in Egypt. Which could be both an advantage and a disadvantage, right?

He might be less threatening to various opposition groups as a figurehead, but he hasn't been able to consolidate all the opposition groups and voices behind him. There are a number of other groups that are negotiating not through him, but directly with the Egyptian government. The Muslim Brothers have said they would support him as a potential candidate for president. He's somebody who probably will emerge as one of the top two or three opposition leaders at least in the interim period. How much staying power he has in the long run, whether or not he can develop a political party and organization of his own is another matter entirely.

Q: Minister of Defense Tantawi is seen by many to be someone separate from Mubarak and Suleiman. While he may be following orders, the west is reporting that the military is taking more of a stand-offish role in support of the government. Do you see that as entirely false and only a western perspective?

Patel: You're trying to ask me if there's going to be a coup? The military is massive, at least 350,000 to 400,000. The Egyptian military currently runs between 15 and 24 factories around the country. They have massive economic and business interests throughout the country. Military officers and businesses and people connected to them are incredibly influential in the Egyptian economy. There's a lot of people in the Egyptian military interested in preserving their access to things, making sure that military contractors are involved in building all those new roads around Cairo, making sure that the military is the dominant player, especially in food industries.

They've gotten very good at dividing the kitty. They have become very good at balancing factions within the military. They've been a pretty stable military regime. You don't hear about coup attempts within the military in Egypt very often. I'd say the likelihood of a coup is very low. A lot of people have incentive to make sure the military comes out, as a whole, in a strong position, economically, perhaps even more importantly than politically.

Q: What do you see, in the near term, as a catalyst for ending the protests and getting back to ordinary life in Egypt?

Patel: Cairo and the surrounding areas are 18 million people, and the protests are concentrated in one area, Tahrir Square. Most of Cairo is, if not business as usual, seeing people going to work. People are going out and selling things, even in the middle of Tahrir.

The government is hoping that the protesters will get tired, that they'll, through attrition, go home. That doesn't seem to be happening. Those protesters there seem to be extremely resilient. If anything, the numbers have grown over time and they have tremendous staying power.

So the regime's strategy now seems to be to try to buy off some of the opposition. They've made what they see as some concessions to the protesters. They're hoping that the opposition groups will make some concessions. The Muslim Brothers sitting down to talk to Omar Suleiman the other day was a concession. They didn't agree to anything, as I understand it, but they did sit down with him.

A lot of different people try to represent the protesters and try to negotiate with the government, various groups of wisemen, ElBaradei, various political parties. The government's hoping that some of the opposition groups will pull their support away. They're hoping that some of the Egyptians who aren't involved in any way will say, "This has gone on too long. You've achieved enough; we can achieve more without being there in Tahrir." So they're hoping that public opinion in Egypt will turn against public protests. The protesters have said that they'll stay there indefinitely. It's been going on for two weeks now. The military has said they're not going to crack down so the protesters have a sense of safety now that they didn't have a couple days ago. I think you could see this continuing to go on for several more weeks, if you don't see some sort of agreement between various opposition groups and the government as to how a transition would occur... and for Mubarak to step down.

Q: The one thing that almost all the parties agree upon, is that they don't want outsiders to determine their future. They don't want people outside Egypt either corrupting the situation or exerting undue influence. That could be the United States, Iran, or whomever. What countries are well-poised, other than the United States, to continue or to begin to have a strong influence in Egypt?

Patel: In the short run, nobody. This is going to be resolved by Egypt one way or another. I don't think the United States can force Mubarak out of office. I don't think any other actors can put the pressure that will be decisive one way or another. Egyptians are determining the future of Egypt and that's a good thing. The Egyptian government continuously repeats the line that these are foreign agitators. Sometimes they blame Iranians. Sometimes they blame Israelis. Sometimes they blame Americans. They're all sorts of rumors flying around about outside agitation to weaken the homeland, to weaken the stability of Egypt. I haven't seen any evidence of foreign influence in the protests whatsoever. This is clearly an Egyptian, and a very diverse Egyptian, protest.

The World’s Shortest One-Letter Emails Put on Sale on E-bay

On the eve of Cinese New Year Web-site H.ua put on sale the shortest e-mails in the world. For 950$ one can buy 8@h.ua, c@h.ua, h@h.ua or any other one-letter e-mail address and enjoy having the shortest possible e-mail in the world.

(PRWEB) February 4, 2011

On the eve of Chinese New YearWeb-site put on sale the shortest e-mails in the world. For 950$ one can buy 8(at)h.ua, c(at)h.ua, h(at)h.ua or any other one-letter e-mail address and enjoy having the shortest possible e-mail in the world. 38 e-mail addresses, corresponding to the letters of English alphabet and 0-9 numbers were put on sale onFeb 3.

Dmitriy Dubilet, the domain owner, says: “We are sure, that an amazing one-letter e-mail will find its buyers. “H.ua” has a special meaning to Chinese people, since the word “Hua” is often used to represent China or Chinese civilization. Just imagine - you have the shortest possible e-mail in the world with a beautiful ending “h.ua”, that stands for your country”.

Very few people on the planet enjoy having one-letter e-mail, because it’s hard to register. H.ua web-site claims one-letter-e-mail is very convenient, easy to spell and remember. Dmitriy says in an interview: “I registered H.ua domain for one of my projects in 2006. And recently I’ve got an idea to sell one-letter e-mails. It shocks people, when one dictates the short address. d@h.ua? Is that all? Wow, you have a wonderful address, people say respectfully.”

promises buyers to help set up one-letter e-mail address and provide free technical support for e-mail server. A buyer can use common Gmail, Yahoo, Hotmail interface with @h.ua e-mail or continue using a favourite e-mail client - Outlook, Eudora, Aple mail.app etc. It only takes a few days to set up the shortest e-mail in the world.

For further information, please, contact Sergey Danilenko, H.ua Marketing director.Web: E-mail: sd@h.ua, Tel: +38-050-440-98-92.Facebook:

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Sergey DanilenkoFine Web380504409892Email Information

Giffords' Astronaut Husband Weighs Decision to Lead Space Mission

Mark Kelly, the astronaut husband of Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.), is weighing the tough decision of whether to command his planned April space shuttle mission, or step down to remain by his wife's side.

Giffords is recovering from a bullet wound to the head she received when a man opened fire at a constituent meeting she was holding at a Tucson, Ariz., grocery store Jan. 8.

Neither NASA nor Kelly have so far indicated which way the decision will go, though NASA appointed veteran astronaut Rick Sturckow to serve as a backup commander during training for the STS-134 mission, which is the final flight of the space shuttle Endeavour. The mission is set to launch April 19.

Kelly's twin brother, Scott Kelly, is also an astronaut and is currently serving a long-duration stint onboard the International Space Station's Expedition 26 mission. Scott Kelly told reporters Wednesday that he had an idea which way his brother was leaning, but that he'd leave it to Mark Kelly and NASA to make the announcement.

"As far as him making a decision, I think we'll hear something about that soon," Scott Kelly said. "I know he needs to certainly consult with NASA management on that. He's a pretty logical guy and very thoughtful and will certainly weigh all the different considerations when making this decision."

Scott Kelly said he and his brother had discussed the tough call about the spaceflight, which will be Mark Kelly's last chance to fly again on a space shuttle since NASA's three-orbiter fleet will retire this year. Mark Kelly has already made three previous space shuttle voyages.

"We do talk about it and we have talked about the different considerations," Scott Kelly said Wednesday. "I'm confident he's going to make a good decision, and whichever decision he chooses I'll support him."

Florida's senator Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), who flew aboard a space shuttle as a payload specialist in 1986, told ABC’s "Top Line" that there is a good chance Mark Kelly will in fact fly aboard Endeavour.

"It is a tough decision for him, but I think it's reasonable to expect that he will go on to command this mission in April, because I think Gabby is significantly improving every day," Nelson said.

Mark Kelly has confirmed that Giffords is making steady improvements.

"Today was a huge day for GG. Lots of progress!" he tweeted yesterday (Feb. 2).

He also spoke Thursday at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington, D.C.

"Every day she gets a little bit better and the neurosurgeons and neurologists tell me that's a great sign," Kelly said. "The last month has been the hardest time of my life and the hardest time of my family's life."

He asked for people to continue to keep his wife in their prayers, and he prayed that some good may come out of this tragic event if people can unite to meet the challenges our country faces.

You can follow SPACE.com senior writer Clara Moskowitz on Twitter @ClaraMoskowitz.

Microsoft Adds Phony E-Mail to Your Hotmail Account

Microsoft recently announced a new feature that lets you create and maintain multiple phonyfrom your main .

The new alias service lets you create up to five different e-mail addresses per year that point directly to your primary Hotmail account. Microsoft says you can keep up to 15 aliases on one account even though you can only create five aliases per year. make it a breeze to hand out a genuine e-mail address in awkward or short-term situations while keeping your primary address private.

The average person maintains three different e-mail accounts, .There are various reasons you might want more than one e-mail address such as dedicating separate accounts to handle junk mail from retailers, business, and personal mail; or maybe an account for comment trolling on the weekends.

But checking multiple inboxes every day can often be a pain, especially if you're busy trolling.One option before now was to have all your mail forwarded from multiple addresses to your primary account.Gmail and Hotmail also offer a service that lets you prepend your e-mail address with a '+' symbol such as spam+myemail@gmail.com.But the prepend method requires you to reveal your actual e-mail address within the phony account; Hotmail's new alias feature avoids this.

Getting Started With Hotmail Aliases

To create an alias click on the cog icon next to your Inbox link in the left pane of the main Hotmail Window. You should see an a pop-up menu with an option to "Create a Hotmail alias."

This will take you to a screen where you can create an @hotmail.com or @live.com e-mail address.If you choose an e-mail address that's already taken, you'll be prompted to try again.

It should take just a few minutes for Hotmail to create and prepare your new phony address. Once it's ready you'll receive an alert in your inbox.After your alias has been approved, you can decide to have all e-mail that is sent to the phony address delivered to a dedicated folder or to your main inbox.

To send mail from your new address just click on your e-mail address at the top of the compose window and select from the drop down menu.

Hotmail started rolling out aliases earlier this week, so if you don't have the alias feature in your account yet you should see it soon.

Connect with Ian Paul () andon Twitter for the latest tech news and analysis.

Stocks waver after mixed unemployment report

NEW YORK – Stocks swung between small gains and losses on Friday after a report said the unemployment rate fell last month but that new jobs remain scarce. The government said the unemployment rate in January dropped to 9 percent, the lowest rate since April 2009 and a sharp fall from 9.4 percent in December. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to rise to 9.5 percent, in part because of harsh winter weather that affected much of the country.

At the same time, the government said that 36,000 new jobs were created last month, the fewest in four months. The slow job growth left some analysts doubting that the economic recovery is gathering momentum.

"We are seeing some improvements but the disappointing jobs creation shows that the job market is not back to where we need it to be," said Ryan Detrick, senior strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. The lack of new jobs will likely lead the Federal Reserve to continue its efforts to boost the economy, he said.

Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global, said some investors took a skeptical view of the report. "The information value of this report is limited because it was obviously affected by the weather," he said.

The unemployment rate fell even as the economy added few jobs because some people who are out of work gave up looking for a new job, O' Sullivan said. The Labor Department only includes those actively looking for work when calculating the main unemployment rate.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 8 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 12,070 in afternoon trading. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 1 point, or less than 0.1 percent, to 1,307. The Nasdaq composite index gained 12 points, or 0.4 percent, to 2,765.

"There is nothing in the employment report to hold on to and say that this is giving us direction," said Dan Cook, the chief executive of IG Markets.

Five of the 10 company groups that make up the S&P index fell. Utilities companies had the largest move, losing 0.7 percent.

Bond traders, however, took the employment report as evidence of a stronger job market and drove Treasury prices down and yields up. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped to 3.65 percent, the highest yield since last May. The yield was trading at 3.55 percent late Thursday.

Before the market opened, health insurer Aetna Inc. said it will raise its dividend payment to shareholders, after its fourth-quarter profit climbed 30 percent. Aetna's stock price jumped 9 percent.

Tyson Foods Inc. rose 6 percent, after profits increased 86 percent last quarter, in part because of rising prices for beef and pork.

Clorox Co. rose 2 percent after it said its quarterly profit was higher than analysts had anticipated.