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Majority of Americans believe Obama will win election: poll

Agence France-Presse
WASHINGTON - A majority of Americans believe that Democratic candidate Barack Obama will win the presidential election against Republican hopeful John McCain in November, a Fox News poll showed Thursday.
While 51 percent say Obama, who is vying to become the first African American president, will win the election, only 27 percent are betting on a McCain victory.
Voters registered as Democrats are more confident about their candidate's chances than their Republican peers: 71 percent of Democrats see Obama winning on November 4 while 51 percent of Republicans believe McCain will win.
One in four Republicans think that Obama, a senator from Illinois, will succeed US President George W. Bush.
A month ago, 47 percent of Americans believed that Obama, 46, would win the election compared to 32 percent for McCain, a 71-year-old Arizona senator.
Even though many Americans are predicting an Obama victory, the race remains tight.
In a head-to-head matchup, Obama leads McCain 41 to 40 percent among registered voters, the poll showed. If Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and independent hopeful Ralph Nader are added, Obama leads McCain by 40 to 37 percent.
If Obama chooses former Democratic nomination rival Hillary Clinton as his running mate and McCain picks former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, a former Republican candidate, the Democratic ticket leads 48 to 39 percent.
The survey was conducted between July 22-23 among 900 voters. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.
While the race remains close, Obama is struggling to convince many Americans of his commander-in-chief mettle after serving in the US Senate for only three years.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out Wednesday showed that 55 percent of Americans believe Obama would be the riskier choice for the presidency compared to 35 percent for McCain, a Vietnam war veteran.
When asked about the poll, Obama told NBC television Thursday: "I do understand it. I'm new to the scene."
"John McCain's been around 25, 30 years in public life. I have just recently emerged in terms of our national politics. And so it's not surprising that people would say that the guy we're more familiar with is the less riskier choice," he said.
"That doesn't answer the broader question, though, which is what do Americans think we need right now?"
Another poll released Thursday by Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed McCain had cut Obama's lead in the key battleground states of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, and overtaken Obama in voter support in Colorado.
"It's been a good month for McCain. His movement in these key states, not large except for Minnesota, jibes with the tightening we are seeing in the national polls," said Peter Brown, the institute's assistant director.
"The good news for McCain is that he has improved his standing in Colorado and Michigan, two states that are critical to each man's strategy," Brown said.
McCain led Obama by 46 percent to 44 percent in Colorado, the survey conducted last week of some 1,400 people in the mountainous state showed. The margin of error was 2.6 percent.
In June, Obama led McCain by 49 percent to 44 percent in Colorado, traditionally a Republican state.
In Michigan, Obama also saw a couple of percentage points shaved off his voter-support tally, which fell from 48 percent in June to 46 percent this month. McCain held steady at 42 percent. The margin of error in that state's poll was 2.4 percent.
And in Minnesota, McCain surged ahead -- from 37 percent in June to 44 percent -- while Obama fell back from 54 percent to 46 percent, Quinnipiac said. Minnesota's margin of error was 2.8 percent.
Another poll by the Pew Research Center found that two-thirds of Hispanic voters support Obama for the White House, while less than one quarter back McCain.
The findings marked a positive turn for Obama's fortunes with Latinos: he lost the Hispanic vote in the Democratic primaries to Clinton by nearly two-to-one, Pew noted.