Amarylla blog

Could Windows Phone 7 Beat the iPhone?

m not sure if they predicted it to get a lot of attention for IDC or if they are serious.

The whole idea stems from the Nokia deal and patterns of buying behavior. There is not enough data—none, in fact—on the pick-up sales created by the Microsoft-Nokia deal, so this prediction is completely off-the-wall and seems based more on current Symbian numbers than actual sales. There is one conceivable underlying assertion, and that's that Phone 7 is better, by far, than Symbian, and if Symbian is still hanging in there (it is), then Phone 7 should do as well or better.

So logically, this is not a real stretch.

The way IDC sees all this is as follows (all predicted for 2015): Android will be number one with 45.4 percent market share, next will be Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile with 20.9 percent,and will be followed by Apple's iPhone with 15.3 percent.. Taking up the rear will be BlackBerry with 13.7 percent, "Others" with 4.6 percent, and then Symbian with 0.2 percent.

This list assumes a lack of consolidation. Anyone who has read my thoughts on the issue knows that I expect the smartphone OSs to consolidate in much the same way that the PC OS business consolidated into two camps, PC and Mac. The smartphone market will logically consolidate into the same basic model. This time, the finally two will be Android and iOS.

This will happen largely for the same reason that the PC/Mac duopoly consolidated and that reason is developer support. People like to buy into a platform that has a lot of developer support, and developers only support what is popular, which is determined by developer support, and it goes round and round.

This crazy cycle cannot be easily broken by newcomers although it was done twice in recent memory in the gaming business by both Sony's PlayStation and Microsoft's Xbox. These two were not even in the game when Sega and Nintendo were battling it out, and everyone said no newcomers could emerge.

But the gaming business is different enough from the PC or smartphone businesses to reject the possibility that a newcomer—Phone 7—could enter the game and becoming successful. And I say this knowing full well that Microsoft invented the category. Okay, to put some historical gaming business spin on it: Atari invented the video game and where is it now?

To summarize: the IDC report is rank speculation.

The one long shot possibility, the way I see it, is that Windows Phone 7 phones could become the low-end smartphones that replace all the so-called feature phones. We have to face the fact that eventually all phones will have no buttons and be based on the smartphone virtual keyboard concept, because at some point they will be much cheaper to make. We can call them software phones, since their operation will be all software.

The problem with Microsoft trying to take over the lower-end segment of the market is that Android and Apple could both drop down and do the same thing. In fact, the Android OS has "Car Home," which presents the user with a simplified menu structure that is reminiscent of Phone 7 and can presumably be operated while driving.

But what is also overlooked in all this is that if all phones are going to become software-based, then there is zero reason not to push them to the max with more and more complex features. It's just software after all.

None of this bodes well, long-term, for Phone 7. It all seems like wishful thinking to me. But I wish them luck.

VCU sees opportunity in Final Four trip

On a campus where hundreds have lined up daily to buy Final Four T-shirts at $21.98 each, VCU film students Caroline Miller and Tommy Bell were selling glazed doughnuts at $1 a pop while pausing to reflect on their school's improbable run.

"I've never seen this much school spirit," said Miller, standing behind boxes of Krispy Kreme doughnuts, the sticky sweet attraction of their arts fundraiser. "On Sunday, you couldn't even walk outside without cracking a grin for how proud the school is right now."

Building steam, Miller added, "I think the school is going to, like, massively grow — it's just going to explode."

Bell has been caught up in the Rams' run, too, and shares the widely held view that the basketball team's inspirational performance can only benefit the school.

"VCU's a great school, in my opinion," said the sophomore from Knoxville, Tenn. "If it gets more attention, more people, more tuition, I don't think it can hurt."

From the president's office to City Hall, Virginia Commonwealth University's trip to college basketball's most exclusive gathering is viewed as a huge plus for this urban campus of 32,303 students and the city in which it occupies some prime real estate. It's a great opportunity to highlight the school's academics while dispelling some myths in the process.

"What's happening is there's an enormous level of interest from all kinds of people in VCU right now," school President Michael Rao said Tuesday. "We're really on everyone's screen."

Rao expects VCU's first trip to the Final Four, where it plays Butler for a spot in the championship game, to double the school's annual giving to $80 million in a decade, along with bringing in more research dollars and attracting more students.

He's also intent on setting the record straight: VCU is not a commuter school and it is not an open-access school.

"People will say to me — and it makes me crazy — 'What's your average SAT score? Is it up near a thousand yet?' Well, it's well over a thousand," Rao said.

For the record, it's just under 1,100.

"It's not a commuter school anymore," Rao said. "We can't build housing fast enough."

VCU dates its origins to 1838, when it was the medical department of Hampden-Sydney College, and became Virginia Commonwealth University in 1968. It now occupies vast expanses of Richmond at the tip of The Fan, a residential district of stately homes and trendy restaurants.

The campus is a mix of brownstones fitting of Boston's Back Bay and high-rise student housing that could pass for Moscow apartment buildings — all concrete and metal. The campus also includes the 52.4-acre VCU Medical Center across downtown.

The optimism inspired by the team's trip to Houston is reminiscent of another Virginia school and its 2006 appearance in the Final Four: George Mason. The two are rivals on the court in the Colonial Athletic Association, and jockey annually for the claim as the school with the largest enrollment in the state.

"It was an exhilarating time," George Mason spokesman Daniel Walsch recalled. "It was not like anything we've experienced before."

A study conducted by the school concluded the Final Four appearance resulted in immediate gains. Admissions inquiries increased by 350 percent, alumni became more active and fundraising continues to climb. The study estimated the value of free media exposure at $677 million.

"Student demand has certainly increased dramatically" Walsch said, "to the point where we're bursting at the seams."

At VCU, the bookstore has been a visible barometer of the school's popularity as the Rams upset their way to the Final Four, with a stunning victory over top-seeded Kansas last Sunday the biggest of all. About 600 people lined up after that win for the latest shipment of clothing and memorabilia celebrating the team's historic run.

Amy Randolph, the store general manager, hasn't been able to keep apace of demand as lines have snaked around the building, just down the busy thoroughfare where the Rams play.

"So many have come down on their lunch break," Randolph said. "I've heard so many people say I'm not even a basketball fan but I had to get a Final Four shirt."

Bob Dickerson, a 1990 VCU grad, was sizing up a yellow golf shirt with the VCU logo. He was looking for something to wear to work Friday at Virginia Dominion Power. Its downtown high-rise saluted the team in lights Monday with the words: "VCU GO RAMS!"

"It's incredible, just incredible," he said. "I don't think even Kentucky can stop them."

Richmond Mayor Dwight C. Jones, who came from Philadelphia to attend Virginia Union University, said the Rams' success can only be good for his city of approximately 200,000. It was also rooting for the University of Richmond, which made it to the round of 16.

"We're riding the wave and we're really excited about the national attention," Jones said. "People need to know that Richmond is a city on the rise, that we're up and coming. Thirty-three-thousand students can't be wrong."

Jones said he planned on attending the Final Four.

"How can you be the mayor of Hoopstown and not go to Houston?" he asked.

Vietnam tour boat sinking kills 12 from 9 nations

HA LONG BAY, Vietnam – Italian traveler Stefano Corda felt an ominous tilt as dinner was served, but his tour boat crew assured him everything was fine. A few hours later, Corda and his friend jumped for their lives into Vietnam's famed Ha Long Bay as water raced inside the wooden vessel, sucking it down and killing 12 people from nine countries.

Vacationers from the U.S., Britain, Australia, Japan, Russia, France, Sweden and Switzerland died along with their Vietnamese tour guide Thursday in Vietnam's deadliest tour boat accident since the country opened to foreign visitors 25 years ago. All were sleeping on the overnight ship, which was anchored in about 30 feet (10 meters) of water near a small island.

Nine foreigners and six Vietnamese survived only by flinging themselves overboard and swimming to other tour boats anchored nearby.

"We woke up at 5, and the boat took one minute to sink," Corda, 35, of Palermo, Italy, told Associated Press Television News. "We went to the exit and the boat was almost vertical. I grabbed my friend, we went out, and it was so fast."

Ha Long Bay is one of the country's top tourist attractions, drawing more than 5 million visitors a year to the province where 1,600 stunning jagged rock formations rise out of the bay, forming tiny islands. Many visitors stay overnight on wooden boats equipped with sleeping cabins and eating quarters.

Police are investigating what caused the accident, and a Vietnamese official called for checks on safety of the more than 100 tour boats that ply the bay.

Corda's friend, Stefano Sacconi, 33, of Rome, was in the bathroom just before the disaster struck. He thought he felt the boat buckling on its right side and soon realized they needed to get out. And fast.

"We started to hear tables and glasses falling from the top of the restaurant," he said. "After that, my friend went out. He called me, 'Come up! Come up! Something's wrong here! The boat is going down!'"

They jumped from the junk and swam to another nearby ship.

Other survivors reported seeing a wooden plank ripping away from the ship around 5 a.m., followed by gushing water inundating the boat and quickly pulling it under near Titov island, about an hour from mainland's shore, said Vu Van Thin, chief administrator of Quang Ninh province. The boat was still anchored from the night when it sank.

Several feet of the masts were still visible, and Thin said crews were working to bring in a crane to pull the boat out. Divers worked to free the bodies still inside Thursday morning.

There were 27 people, including six crew members, aboard the boat and all have been accounted for, Thin said. The vessel, which is owned by Truong Hai Co., was anchored alongside dozens of other cruise boats and weather conditions were calm at the time of the sinking.

The dead have been sent to Bai Chay Hospital for identification, where survivors received treatment for minor injuries, said Ngo Van Hung, director of Ha Long Bay's management board.

The official Vietnam News Agency published the victims' names and ages, most of them aged 20 to 25, seven were women. They include a Briton, two Americans, one Japanese, one French, two Swedes, two Russians, one Swiss and one person of Vietnamese origin living in Australia, according to the government.

One American was Samantha Kay Taylor, a recent graduate of the University of Colorado at Boulder, who was overseas teaching in China and traveling.

Her boyfriend, George Fosmire, 23, a University of Colorado at Boulder student, was traveling with her and after the accident, went to the morgue to help identify the bodies of his girlfriend and their good friend, said Fosmire's father, William Fosmire of Golden, Colo., in an Associated Press interview.

"This is a very rare and very unfortunate accident," said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Nguyen Phuong Nga. She said tour companies should improve safety measures in Ha Long Bay.

Police have launched a criminal investigation into the cause of the accident, which remained unclear Thursday.

Bai Chay Hospital deputy director, Giang Quoc Duy, said survivors "were in a panic."

"They were given first aid treatment and have already returned to their hotels," he said.

Vietnam's foreign ministry confirmed the survivors as two Danes, one German, two Italians, one American, one Australian, one French and one Swiss.

Ha Long Bay, a U.N. World Heritage site dotted with limestone formations, is located near the Chinese border in the Gulf of Tonkin about three hours east of the capital, Hanoi.

More than 100 cruise boats are licensed to offer overnight service there, and last year the province received 5.4 million visitors, nearly half of them foreigners, according to government websites.

The bay has seen boats go down in the past. In 2009, a tour boat sank during a storm, killing five, including three foreign vacationers. In 2006, a powerful wind storm capsized several boats, killing 13 people, though no tourists were among the dead. In 2002, strong winds capsized two tourist boats, killing several foreigners.

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Associated Press writers Tran Van Minh and Margie Mason contributed to this report from Hanoi, Vietnam, and Sheila V Kumar contributed from Denver.

IRS reduces penalties if tax cheats come clean

WASHINGTON – International tax evaders who come clean will be able to avoid jail and pay reduced fines under a new voluntary disclosure program announced Tuesday by the Internal Revenue Service.

Tax cheats will have until Aug. 31 to settle up with the IRS or face an ongoing crackdown against Americans who hide assets overseas, IRS Commissioner Doug Shulman said.

"If we find you, you face harsher penalties and the possibility of jail time," Shulman said. "If you come in voluntarily, you pay a steep price but avoid going to jail."

The offer is similar to one the IRS made in 2009 that netted 15,000 tax evaders. Shulman said the IRS has closed 2,000 of those cases, collecting $400 million in additional revenue.

Shulman said the new offer isn't as generous because he doesn't want to reward tax cheats who waited two years to come forward.

Under the new program, tax evaders must pay back taxes, interest and delinquency penalties for the past eight years, if accounts have been held that long. In addition, they will have to pay a penalty of up to 25 percent of the highest annual amount in the overseas account from 2003 through 2010.

Shulman said the 2009 disclosure program provided the IRS with many leads on the bankers and financial advisers who help Americans hide assets. He said the IRS is now investigating "a number of other banks" and is tracking the flow of illicit money.

The disclosure programs are part of a larger effort by the Obama administration to crack down on Americans who evade U.S. taxes by hiding assets in overseas accounts. In 2009, Swiss banking giant UBS AG agreed to turn over details on 4,450 accounts suspected of holding undeclared assets from American customers.

"We've been getting better and better at detecting offshore accounts. Therefore, the risk of being caught is increasing," Shulman said. "We now have a number of other banks under investigation based on information we received from our first round of disclosures and from other sources. Tax secrecy continues to erode."

Shulman declined to provide details about any ongoing investigations.

Tax lawyers said they expect IRS enforcement efforts to increase after new reporting requirements for foreign financial institutions take effect in 2013. The law, passed last year, will require U.S. entities to withhold a share of payments to foreign financial institutions that don't provide information to the IRS about American account holders.

"People who don't come in now are going to find themselves in a real problem," said Kathryn Keneally, a tax expert and partner at the law firm of Fulbright & Jaworski in New York. "We know that there are a lot of people who did not come in under the first program. We know that the IRS has gained a lot of information through the first program, so they have the ability to learn about more and more people."

The IRS long has had a policy that certain tax evaders who come forward before they are contacted by the agency usually can avoid jail time as long as they agree to pay back taxes, interest and hefty penalties. Drug dealers and money launderers need not apply. But if the money was earned legally, tax evaders can usually avoid criminal prosecution.

Fewer than 100 people apply for the program in a typical year, in part because the penalties can far exceed the value of the hidden account, depending on how long the account holder has evaded U.S. taxes.

Shulman said the IRS expected about 1,000 people to come forward under the 2009 program that netted 15,000. Since the program ended, an additional 3,000 people with offshore accounts have contacted the IRS, Shulman said. They will be eligible for the new program.

"As I've said all along, the goal is to get people back into the U.S. tax system," Shulman said. "This new disclosure initiative is the last, best chance for people to get back into the system."

Super-G champ Cuche promises 'tough battle'

GARMISCH-PARTENKIRCHEN (AFP) – Defending world super-G champion Didier Cuche plans to ruin World Cup leader Ivica Kostelic's 'holiday' when the men's competition starts Wednesday at the World Ski Championships.

The Swiss veteran scooped super-G gold when the world championships were held in Val d'Isere two years ago, but Croatia's Kostelic is now the skier to beat and has a massive 524-point lead over second-placed Cuche in the World Cup rankings.

With the events set to start Tuesday with the women's super-G and finish on February 20 with the men's slalom, Kostelic has said he will treat the world championships like a 'holiday' in order to focus on his World Cup campaign.

While slalom-specialist Kostelic has performed strongly this season in the technical disciplines, warm day-time temperatures and freezing nights in the Bavarian Alps mean the Kandahar course will be icy and fast.

Course conditions will favour the speed demons amongst the world's elite skiers and Cuche says it promises to be a tough battle in the super-G, which combines elements of the downhill and the giant slalom, and is decided over one race.

"Sure, it would be nice to able to celebrate winning a medal, but, as we all know, this isn't a walk in the park," said the 36-year-old Swiss.

"I'm not going to make any statements concerning my colour of choice, but of course I'm hoping for the necessary ounce of good luck. I like the track in Garmisch-Partenkirchen.

"I have often been able to perform well here in the past."

Unlike the downhill, skiers do not have the chance of a pre-race training run in the super-G, only a one-hour visual inspection on the morning of the race.

And that is where experience will count down the twisting turns of the steep course, with the likes of veterans Bode Miller of the US likely to prosper on a fast track.

Olympic champion Norway's Aksel Lund Svindal, third in the overall rankings, is also one to look out for having taken super-G gold, downhill silver and giant slalom bronze at the Vancouver Winter Games.

"Beautiful sunshine and very warm in Garmisch," Svindal said on his blog. "Just played football in a t-shirt.

"But race conditions on the hill are looking good, and so does the weather forecast. Nice to be here. Let the world championships begin!!"

Austria's men come into the race in fine form after Philipp Schorghofer won the giant slalom on Sunday in Hinterstoder, 24 hours after compatriot Hannes Reichelt won the super-G.

The wins boost flagging confidence in the Austrian camp with Hans Grugger recovering from severe head injuries that required a coma-induced operation last week following a crash at Kitzbuhel on January 20.

Mario Scheiber (collarbone) and Georg Streitberger (shin) also suffered crash injuries in recent weeks.