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Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts
READ & DOWNLOAD Annie Duke book Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts in PDF, EPub, Mobi, Kindle online. Free book, AudioBook, Reender Book Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts by Annie Duke full book,full ebook full Download.
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Author : Annie Duke
Title : Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts
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In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots’ one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actuallymake a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Even the best decision doesn’t yield the best outcome every time. There’s always an element of luck that you can’t control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land inthe unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision
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