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SYRIA: Geneva 2: "The negotiations will be a decrease in fighting"

 

Given for dead long before he had seen the day, the Geneva conference-2 could well take place eventually. The summit supposed to find a solution to the conflict in Syria for more than two and a half years, should indeed take place on January 22, announced Monday, November 25th Secretary General of the UN Ban Ki-moon. Even as the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and other fighters have rejected the initiative, including the opposition Syrian National Coalition (CNS), yet little excited about the persepective of the summit , welcomed Tuesday its realization, it was "very positive", the announcement of a date.

Initiated by Russia and the United States, this peace conference, whose idea has already generated numerous quarrels, aims to bring the re regime and the opposition at the same negotiating table and to implement advanced Geneva-1 which was held in June 2012 provisions. The final release of the first installment provided including the formation of a transitional government while ignoring the possible role of Bashar al-Assad, bone of contention between the two camps. Since the departure of Assad has indeed become the precondition posed by the opposition, participation in Geneva II. And that the Syrian regime does not want to hear about it.

Concerning the presence of the strong man of Damascus conference, Laurent Fabius has wanted clear. "Geneva-2 will take place, but I remember that the purpose of the Geneva-2, it is not to have a conversation-shops on Syria, it is a mutual consent between representatives of the regime - without Bashar - and the moderate opposition (to) come to a transitional government with full powers ", told the head of French diplomacy Tuesday, November 26th on France Culture.

"Having a transitional government in Damascus is almost impossible," said for his part Fabrice Balanche Syria specialist and director of the Group for Research and Study of the Mediterranean and the Middle East (GREMMO). According to the researcher, it is true, Americans and Europeans say in their official statements that the purpose of Geneva is to form a transitional government, "they all know that Assad will not leave power. " More than that, he believes that this issue has been partially resolved. "Geneva-2 has somehow been held in early September when the U.S. and Russia negotiated the destruction of chemical weapons in exchange for maintaining Assad," said- he says. Frédéric Pichon, specialist historian of Syria, joined on this point and also observed in the emission Decoding broadcast on RFI Monday, "the agreement of September amounted to Recognize the legitimacy of the regime by integrating it into an international negotiation. "

The hope is it appropriate?

However, although many remain unknown - who represent the rebels? The government delegation does have the power to make critical decisions? Iran, which supports Damascus, and Saudi Arabia, which supports the opposition, will they be in the game? - There are many who approach the conference with hope. Topping the list, Ban Ki-moon. However, aware of the obstacles and substantive disagreements between the various parties, the Secretary General of the UN considers it "unforgivable not to take this opportunity to end the suffering and destruction that the conflict has caused. " "We will go to Geneva with hope. The Geneva conference is the way to achieve a peaceful transition that meets the legitimate aspirations of all the Syrian people for freedom and dignity and ensure the safety and protection of all communities in Syria, "he repeated again Tuesday, a spokesman for the UN in a statement.

Fabrice Balanche wants too optimistic. For him, there is indeed a "hope that the Geneva-2 makes it possible to initiate a process of cessation of hostilities." "It's going to negotiate on both sides is a decrease in the intensity of the fighting," he says. He explained that Americans and Westerners will try to put pressure on Turkey and Saudi Arabia including stifles their financial support to the rebels, and Russian and Iranians will in turn try to convince the re , diet to reduce the intensity of its repressive strikes.

According to the researcher, the decrease in violence by both sides would solve several critical issues: Stop the bloodshed in the first place, but also help to deliver aid to NGOs civilians in need. The issue of refugees and displaced Syrians is also important for the international community because it is regional. "If the security situation stabilizes, Syrian refugees are more likely to return to Syria, which is not the case today," he says, noting the weight they represent for Lebanon and Jordan in particular, is a threat to the stability of the region.

The participation of Iran in question

The announcement of this date repeatedly postponed, otherwise arises after the conclusion, also in Geneva, an agreement between Iran and the West about its nuclear program Té Héran. Fabrice Balanche, "the deal between the U.S. and Iran will necessarily have an impact on the Syrian issue." And remember that part of the key to the conflict lies in Tehran.

Well before the agreement Sunday, November 24, the presence of Iranians in Geneva-2 was raised. Desired by some, disputed by others, it still remains as yet uncertain: from Geneva where he was to meet with U.S. and Russian diplomats, the UN envoy and Arab League Lakhdar Brahimi said Monday, Nov. 25 that the list of participants was still in negotiations.

According to diplomatic sources cited by Reuters, the U.S. and European governments agree that Iran can participate in Geneva-2 if it accepts the contents of the release of 30 June 2012, including the formation of a transitional government. For its part, Iran was quick to leave his reserve and reported Tuesday by the voice of his chief diplomat Javad Zarif, that it was priests t to join the peace conference if he was invited. "Tehran will be delighted to be part of the negotiations because he thirsts to return to the international stage," noted Frédéric Pichon on RFI. Ally of the Syrian regime, which Iran has not hesitated to send the Revolutionary Guards supporting the Syrian regime on the ground, in fact influence indisputable on the Syrian issue and therefore a role to play in peace.