Alekona blog

First Person: The Effect of Japan's Disaster on My Stock Yields

economy was being seen in the markets as oil and natural gas prices changed almost immediately.

Most of us don't trade in the market on a singular basis but in a continuous basis. Anyone who owns a mutual fund, stock or retirement account is seeing something in the market that is highly unusual right now. The market has been trending sideways since March fourth. What this means is that instead of trending up or down, it is trending in an oscillating fashion where the mean of the oscillation is zero.

Please note what this truly means to investors. Typically, when trends disappear, it means large losses for professional traders. Professional traders trade with the market. Trading with the predominant trends means money. Buy when it goes up, and sell when it comes down. This simple method extends to all corners of trading and encompasses stocks, funds, bonds and currency. Sideways trending makes technical oscillating indicators go crazy. It turns all of our market experience upside down. It makes all of the mathematical tools worthless.

The initial event in the Japan allowed news traders to profit handsomely. I made 150 points easy that day. These points translated into $750 dollars. Had I invested more heavily, I could have easily produced thousands of dollars using news trading techniques. These losses from traders usually occur the second day when traders foolishly go against the trend for the recovery period.

Virtually anyone could have profited. Then things went drastically wrong. The recovery on the curve didn't happen. There wasn't confidence in the market that the Japanese could come back. Investors were still getting bad news and still are today. The Japanese demand for oil dropped immediately. Bidding and arguing started immediately on liquid natural gas (LNG) because the prevailing idea is that the Japanese will use more of it before returning to petroleum.

Seasoned traders often try to make money on the initial drop after a disaster and the recovery (trading against the trend) to maximize profit. The major problem is that trading against any powerful trend is unpredictable. There are no technical indicators that can help you with this. Trading on news of a disaster is 100 percent human psychology. The end result of the Japanese disaster is that the market is in a unique state of sideways trending on many major stocks. People and the market are confused right now. For most of us, we don't know what the nuclear reactors could do in Japan. Right now it sounds like there is going to be a meltdown.

My average earnings have shutdown since this major sideways trends. I have stopped trading until I can see good trendlines again. This disaster has had a very unfortunate affect on my business. Hopefully this situation will end soon.