Amiti Aitelli blog

US expert warns of fallout from N.Korea collapse

QUANTICO, Virginia (AFP) – North Korea's regime has long defied naysayers by persevering through famines, floods and global opprobrium. But what would happen if the upcoming power transition marks the beginning of the end?

In the view of one US military strategist, a collapse of North Korea -- an impoverished nation with an indoctrinated population and nuclear-armed military -- could result in no less than the greatest world crisis in modern times.

Colonel David Maxwell, who heads the Strategic Initiatives Group at the Army's Special Operations Command, said that the United States needed to invest more planning for the most dire scenario, even if it does not transpire.

US troops have been stationed in South Korea since the 1950-53 war to guard against attack. A North Korean advance could easily hit densely populated Seoul, just an hour's drive from the frontier, and would send shockwaves through economic powers Japan, China and South Korea.

"I believe a conventional attack by the North would be the worst crisis that the international community has faced since the end of World War II," Maxwell said in a presentation at the Marines Corps University in Quantico, Virginia.

"But I think the real worst case would be regime collapse," said Maxwell, who stressed he was speaking in a private capacity.

Questions have been rising about North Korea's stability since Kim Jong-Il apparently suffered a debilitating stroke in 2008. Last year, the government faced unusual public resistance after a bungled currency revaluation sent prices skyrocketing.

The ruling party is expected this month to anoint Kim's youngest son as his successor, marking the hermetic regime's second hereditary change of power. Kim Jong-Un is in his 20s and is not known to have experience in governance.

If the regime collapsed, foreign forces would likely face a major threat from insurgents whose belief in the Kim family's philosophy of "juche" -- or self-reliance -- resembles religious fanaticism, Maxwell argued.

"The North Korean people will not welcome the South Korean military, international forces or anybody outside of North Korea," Maxwell said.

"We made that assumption recently that we would be welcomed as liberators and we know how that turned out," he said, referring to the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq.

And an insurgency in North Korea would be "far more sophisticated than what exists in Iraq or Afghanistan now," Maxwell said.

He said an insurgency could tap into North Korea's military might. Despite its meager economy, North Korea has more than one million standing troops -- one of the largest forces in the world -- along with nuclear weapons.

North Korea also has elite Special Operations Forces who are among the world's most committed units, with members forming suicide pacts, said Joseph Bermudez, an expert on Pyongyang's military who has spoken to defectors.

"They literally sit in a circle, they put their gun to the person's head in front of them, they yell, 'Long live Kim Jong Il!' and they pull the trigger," said Bermudez, a senior analyst at Jane's Information Group.

Maxwell recommended that the United States develop a plan to quickly engage and reassure North Koreans in the event of a regime collapse -- particularly second-tier military officers who may wind up in charge of the country.

He also urged a close eye on overseas businesses by North Korean officers, who have developed networks trafficking everything from weapons to knock-off Viagra that could eventually go to fund an insurgency.

Not all Korea experts are convinced by Maxwell's views.

L. Gordon Flake, who heads the Mansfield Foundation think-tank, questioned whether average North Koreans had a "guerrilla ethos" that would survive the fall of the top leadership.

"North Korea is a society that is specifically designed to avoid initiative at the local level," Flake said.

Pointing to the resistance to the currency revaluation, Flake said: "To assume that guerrilla ethos continues, you almost have to assume that there's been no impact over the last two decades from famine, economic collapse, government graft and a tremendous increase in information flows."

While supporting greater US planning for a collapse, Flake said that South Korea should take the lead.

South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak last month proposed a tax to finance reunification of the peninsula, which researchers believe would cost trillions of dollars.

Lee called for greater planning on reunification -- and voiced hope that it can be achieved peacefully.