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Silvio Berlusconi: third time lucky?The election winner has a mandate; this time he must use it

At
least the election was decisive. Before Italy voted, all the signs
pointed to a close finish, with Walter Veltroni, the candidate of the
Left, rapidly closing the gap on Silvio Berlusconi, the 71-year-old
media tycoon campaigning for his third term as Prime Minister. There
were fears of a low turnout, voter disillusion and another bewildering
array of splinter parties that would, yet again, force a premature end
to the country's 62nd postwar government. Instead, Mr Berlusconi won a
decisive victory and a clear mandate. Of more than twenty smaller
parties, most were eliminated, with only six returned to parliament.
Not a single Communist or Socialist was elected. Italian politics, for
the first time, now offers voters a simple choice between Left and
Right, broadly the pattern of all stable democracies.

Mr
Berlusconi moved swiftly to quash speculation that he would fritter
away his mandate much as he wasted the opportunities for reform during
his last contentious premiership. He announced that he would push
through economic reforms, rescue Alitalia, the beleaguered airline,
close the borders to illegal immigrants, strengthen the police and
crack down on crime - “the army of evil”. As a signal of his
determination to cut through Italy's entrenched interests, he announced
that his first Cabinet would meet in Naples, whose piles of rotting
garbage summed up for angry voters Italy's winter of discontent, as the
dustmen's strike did for Britain in 1979.

This ebullient bravado
of the self-made millionaire is what has long attracted voters, and
what probably persuaded Italians to forgive his gaffes, dubious record
and self-interested legislation and entrust their country again to Mr
Berlusconi. Italy is deeply sunk into almost fatalist gloom about its
stagnant economy, lack of competitiveness, political infighting and -
especially galling - eclipse by a booming and confident Spain. Its
commentators have seized on the despairing mood reflected by outsiders,
especially by this newspaper, and have concluded that Italy, like
France, needs a Margaret Thatcher.

Whether Mr Berlusconi, after
all, has that steely reforming zeal remains to be seen. His past record
is not encouraging. Too often he has promised much but delivered
little, put pride above pragmatism, girded his country for
confrontation with the unions but backed down at the last minute. His
promise to rescue the chronically bankrupt Alitalia suggests that, even
now, he is unwilling to face the harsh consequences of global
competition and Italian inefficiency.

The
election has both clarified and complicated his task. It has made it
clear to almost every voter that Italy has to change. Its economy must
be more robust, its workers more flexible, its government more
transparent and its civil institutions more responsive. Those who
preached outdated class warfare, promised un- affordable social
benefits or pretended that the old ways could continue have been swept
away. But Mr Berlusconi still cannot rely on a more realistic body
politic, especially within his own ranks. The xenophobic and
protectionist Northern League, led by the maverick Umberto Bossi,
increased its vote and may prove an awkward government partner, as it
did last time. Mr Berlusconi won office with customary panache; in
government he must show patience, courage and grit. As Mrs Thatcher
used to say, there is no alternative.